Sunday, December 30, 2007

2008 BRASSball Preview - NL West

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are very speculative, but should provide a reasonable glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the National League West teams: Charm City, Metropolis, North Georgia and Ocala. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.
To see my preview of the AL Central, click here.
To see my preview of the AL West, click here.
To see my preview of the NL East, click here.
To see my preview of the NL Central, click here.

Charm City Dragoons
Batting Win Shares: 94.7 (21st of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 73.5 (22nd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 29.5 (24th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 197.7 (22nd of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 56-106

Charm City continues its rebuilding, but appears to have a more talented team in 2008 than the 50-win squad from 2007.

On the mound, John Maine (13 win shares) will top the Charm City rotation. Kyle Lohse (10) and Josh Fogg (8) will also be counted on to provide significant innings. The team's bullpen appears to be a strength, with Matt Capps (13 win shares) and J.C. Romero (6) providing an effective righty-lefty combo.

At the plate, slugger Ryan Howard (25 batting win shares) would be a fixture in any team's rotation. Second baseman Kelly Johnson (15), first baseman Conor Jackson (13), and left fielder Jason Kubel (12) are all emerging players who the Dragoons will count on for seasons to come.

Charm City's team defense does not figure to be a strength, but it does feature some solid defenders in the form of Brandon Inge (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at 3B), Nelson Cruz (2 fielding win shares; 2 range in RF), and Yorvit Torrealba (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at C).


Metropolis Avengers
Batting Win Shares: 189.0 (6th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 95.0 (11th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 57.9 (T-1st of 24)
Total Win Shares: 341.9 (7th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 97-65

After a stretch of lean years in the early 2000s, Metropolis has become one of the most dominant teams in BRASSball. That success is likely to continue in 2008, and the team features a strong lineup, effective pitching, and stellar defense.

On the mound, the Avengers will rely on a pair of young pitchers to lead their rotation: Tom Gorzelanny (16 win shares) and Ian Snell (15). Miguel Batista (13) will provide a veteran presence deeper in the rotation. In the bullpen, Joaquin Benoit (10 win shares) will be counted on to provide another strong season. Joba Chamberlain (4) also figures to make a strong contribution, especially if the team makes the playoffs.

Metropolis will put a lot of runs on the scoreboard with its all-star lineup. Vladimir Guerrero (30 batting win shares) and Matt Holliday (26) will form the core. Victor Martinez (22), Derrek Lee (21), Brian Roberts (20), Hunter Pence (16), and Ryan Zimmerman (15) provide even more punch.

The team's true calling card in recent years has been its defense. That should continue in 2008, as the team features the highest fielding win-share total in BRASSball. Rafael Furcal (8 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS), Brian Roberts (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at 2B), Ryan Zimmerman (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at 3B), and Derrek Lee (3 fielding win shares; 1 range at 1B) form a stellar infield. Meanwhile, Vernon Wells (6 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF) will star in the outfield.

Shockingly, catcher Victor Martinez (9 fielding win shares) posted the highest fielding score on the team. Strat-O-Matic did not agree, giving him his typical 4 range. That said, he thew out a decent percentage of opposing base-stealers in 2007 (32%), which should result in a reasonable throwing arm rating.


North Georgia Yellow Jackets
Batting Win Shares: 131.0 (16th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 113.0 (7th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 46.1 (12th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 290.1 (10th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 82-80

North Georgia earned just 68 wins last season, but figures to be much improved in 2008. In the tough National League, it will need to be to keep its playoff hopes alive.

Fronting its pitching staff will be a pair of left-handed strikeout artists: Scott Kazmir (17 win shares) and Ted Lilly (17). Andy Pettitte (14) and Doug Davis (14), two more southpaws, will also pitch out of the rotation. The bullpen with feature ace reliever Joe Nathan (15 win shares), with Ron Mahay (7) providing left-handed support.

At the plate, Mark Teixeira (25 batting win shares) remains the team's most featured slugger. Outfielders Eric Byrnes (20) and Corey Hart (19) also figure to play major roles in the lineup, with Adam LoRoche (15) and Jhonny Peralta (14) contributing as well.

In the field, Peralta earned over 8 fielding win shares in 2007 but only received a 3 range at shortstop just the same. Fairing better were Eric Byrnes (6 fielding win shares; 2 range in LF/RF), Mark Teixeira (1 fielding win share; 1 range at 1B), and Gerald Laird (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at C).


Ocala Ocelots
Batting Win Shares: 191.1 (5th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 105.8 (8th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 52.8 (7th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 349.7 (6th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 99-63

The Ocala Ocelots are perennial contenders, and look to continue that successful streak in 2008. Based on its curent roster, it appears poised indeed to make another playoff run in the coming season.

The team's formidable pitching staff is highlighted by two ace pitchers in Jake Peavy (23 win shares) and Roy Oswalt (20). If Ocala makes the playoffs, it can lean heavily on these two studs. The young Dustin McGowan (12) also will play a key role in the rotation. Out of the bullpen, Carlos Marmol (11 win shares) gives the team a relief ace. Helping him out will be Brad Hennessey (8), Saul Rivera (7), George Sherrill (7) and Scott Shields (7).

Ocala's lineup looks to be deep, led by young superstar Grady Sizemore (25 batting win shares). Raul Ibanez (23) and Todd Helton (21) will provide more left-handed power, with Derek Jeter (19) and Mike Lowell (18) providing right-handed balance.

With the glove, Joe Mauer earned nearly 9 fielding win shares. His 2 range behind the plate will provide similar value. Mike Lowell (6 fielding win shares; 1 range at 3B), Grady Sizemore (6 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF), and Derek Jeter (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS) will also provide strong defensive value.


Summary
It could be a wire-to-wire race between Metropolis and Ocala for this division's crown, although the second-place team remains a solid contender for a Wild Card berth. North Georgia could also surprise the league by sneaking into the Wild Card hunt.

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