2008 BRASSball Preview - Summary

With our divsion-by-divsion reviews complete, I thought it would be interesting to compile the projected records into one projected end-of-season standings grid. You can find that chart below. (Click on it to enlarge.)

There is likely a large margin-for-error for each team's projected record -- and many more roster moves will certainly be made before the 2008 season begins (including our annual draft). However, these standings should provide a reasonable benchmark of where each team currently stands.

The AL East projects to be an exciting three-way race between Windy City, Tinley, and Hessville. The stakes may be high, as it will be tough for any of these teams to earn a Wild Card berth. Cook County and Plaza project to earn two post-season berths from the AL Central, with Santa Barbara and Malibu also looking like strong playoff candidates from the AL West.

In the NL East, Springfield and Glen Allen will likely fight for one post-season berth between them. Fleetwood and Bloomington project to make the playoffs from the NL Central, with Ocala and Metropolis also showing as strong post-season bets from the NL West.

In terms of total wins by division, the NL Central shapes up to be the strongest division in BRASSball with 387 combined wins. The AL West (336 combined wins) and NL West (334 combined wins) are in a virutal tie for for second. The AL Central is fourth with 323 combined wins. The AL East (291) and NL East (274) finish fifth and sixth in combined wins respectively.

Looking at payroll by division, the AL Central combines for nearly $168 million in total salary. The AL West and NL Central finish second and third with $167 million and $165 million respectively. The AL East's total of $135 million finishes a distant fourth, with the NL West ($123 million) and NL East ($121 million) rounding out the league.

One might judge each team's payroll efficiency by looking at dollars spent per projected win. According to the standings above and each team's current payroll, the "most efficient" and "least efficient" teams are as follows. (Note: These rankings are for entertainment only, as both playoff-caliber and non-playoff caliber teams appear on both Top 5 lists.)



And with that, this multi-part series comes to an end. I hope you enjoyed reading these articles as much as I enjoyed compiling them. I wish each BRASSball team the best of luck in 2008.

2008 BRASSball Preview - NL West

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are very speculative, but should provide a reasonable glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the National League West teams: Charm City, Metropolis, North Georgia and Ocala. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.
To see my preview of the AL Central, click here.
To see my preview of the AL West, click here.
To see my preview of the NL East, click here.
To see my preview of the NL Central, click here.

Charm City Dragoons
Batting Win Shares: 94.7 (21st of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 73.5 (22nd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 29.5 (24th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 197.7 (22nd of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 56-106

Charm City continues its rebuilding, but appears to have a more talented team in 2008 than the 50-win squad from 2007.

On the mound, John Maine (13 win shares) will top the Charm City rotation. Kyle Lohse (10) and Josh Fogg (8) will also be counted on to provide significant innings. The team's bullpen appears to be a strength, with Matt Capps (13 win shares) and J.C. Romero (6) providing an effective righty-lefty combo.

At the plate, slugger Ryan Howard (25 batting win shares) would be a fixture in any team's rotation. Second baseman Kelly Johnson (15), first baseman Conor Jackson (13), and left fielder Jason Kubel (12) are all emerging players who the Dragoons will count on for seasons to come.

Charm City's team defense does not figure to be a strength, but it does feature some solid defenders in the form of Brandon Inge (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at 3B), Nelson Cruz (2 fielding win shares; 2 range in RF), and Yorvit Torrealba (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at C).


Metropolis Avengers
Batting Win Shares: 189.0 (6th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 95.0 (11th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 57.9 (T-1st of 24)
Total Win Shares: 341.9 (7th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 97-65

After a stretch of lean years in the early 2000s, Metropolis has become one of the most dominant teams in BRASSball. That success is likely to continue in 2008, and the team features a strong lineup, effective pitching, and stellar defense.

On the mound, the Avengers will rely on a pair of young pitchers to lead their rotation: Tom Gorzelanny (16 win shares) and Ian Snell (15). Miguel Batista (13) will provide a veteran presence deeper in the rotation. In the bullpen, Joaquin Benoit (10 win shares) will be counted on to provide another strong season. Joba Chamberlain (4) also figures to make a strong contribution, especially if the team makes the playoffs.

Metropolis will put a lot of runs on the scoreboard with its all-star lineup. Vladimir Guerrero (30 batting win shares) and Matt Holliday (26) will form the core. Victor Martinez (22), Derrek Lee (21), Brian Roberts (20), Hunter Pence (16), and Ryan Zimmerman (15) provide even more punch.

The team's true calling card in recent years has been its defense. That should continue in 2008, as the team features the highest fielding win-share total in BRASSball. Rafael Furcal (8 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS), Brian Roberts (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at 2B), Ryan Zimmerman (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at 3B), and Derrek Lee (3 fielding win shares; 1 range at 1B) form a stellar infield. Meanwhile, Vernon Wells (6 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF) will star in the outfield.

Shockingly, catcher Victor Martinez (9 fielding win shares) posted the highest fielding score on the team. Strat-O-Matic did not agree, giving him his typical 4 range. That said, he thew out a decent percentage of opposing base-stealers in 2007 (32%), which should result in a reasonable throwing arm rating.


North Georgia Yellow Jackets
Batting Win Shares: 131.0 (16th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 113.0 (7th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 46.1 (12th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 290.1 (10th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 82-80

North Georgia earned just 68 wins last season, but figures to be much improved in 2008. In the tough National League, it will need to be to keep its playoff hopes alive.

Fronting its pitching staff will be a pair of left-handed strikeout artists: Scott Kazmir (17 win shares) and Ted Lilly (17). Andy Pettitte (14) and Doug Davis (14), two more southpaws, will also pitch out of the rotation. The bullpen with feature ace reliever Joe Nathan (15 win shares), with Ron Mahay (7) providing left-handed support.

At the plate, Mark Teixeira (25 batting win shares) remains the team's most featured slugger. Outfielders Eric Byrnes (20) and Corey Hart (19) also figure to play major roles in the lineup, with Adam LoRoche (15) and Jhonny Peralta (14) contributing as well.

In the field, Peralta earned over 8 fielding win shares in 2007 but only received a 3 range at shortstop just the same. Fairing better were Eric Byrnes (6 fielding win shares; 2 range in LF/RF), Mark Teixeira (1 fielding win share; 1 range at 1B), and Gerald Laird (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at C).


Ocala Ocelots
Batting Win Shares: 191.1 (5th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 105.8 (8th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 52.8 (7th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 349.7 (6th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 99-63

The Ocala Ocelots are perennial contenders, and look to continue that successful streak in 2008. Based on its curent roster, it appears poised indeed to make another playoff run in the coming season.

The team's formidable pitching staff is highlighted by two ace pitchers in Jake Peavy (23 win shares) and Roy Oswalt (20). If Ocala makes the playoffs, it can lean heavily on these two studs. The young Dustin McGowan (12) also will play a key role in the rotation. Out of the bullpen, Carlos Marmol (11 win shares) gives the team a relief ace. Helping him out will be Brad Hennessey (8), Saul Rivera (7), George Sherrill (7) and Scott Shields (7).

Ocala's lineup looks to be deep, led by young superstar Grady Sizemore (25 batting win shares). Raul Ibanez (23) and Todd Helton (21) will provide more left-handed power, with Derek Jeter (19) and Mike Lowell (18) providing right-handed balance.

With the glove, Joe Mauer earned nearly 9 fielding win shares. His 2 range behind the plate will provide similar value. Mike Lowell (6 fielding win shares; 1 range at 3B), Grady Sizemore (6 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF), and Derek Jeter (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS) will also provide strong defensive value.


Summary
It could be a wire-to-wire race between Metropolis and Ocala for this division's crown, although the second-place team remains a solid contender for a Wild Card berth. North Georgia could also surprise the league by sneaking into the Wild Card hunt.

2008 BRASSball Preview - NL Central

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are very speculative, but should provide a reasonable glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the National League Central teams: Bloomington, Fleetwood, Maine and Texas. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.
To see my preview of the AL Central, click here.
To see my preview of the AL West, click here.
To see my preview of the NL East, click here.

Bloomington Bees
Batting Win Shares: 211.3 (1st of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 118.5 (5th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 51.2 (8th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 381.0 (3rd of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 108-54

Bloomington, a founding BRASSball franchise, has a long history of success. In looking at its roster for 2008, it appears primed for another pennant run.

The Bees feature a formidable pitching staff, headed by three ace starters: Josh Beckett (19 win shares), Johan Santana (18), and Roy Halladay (17). Youngsters Matt Cain (14) and Chris Young (13) round out the stellar rotation. Also on the staff is relief ace J.J. Putz. His 18 win shares led all relief pitchers in 2007. (Takashi Saito was second with 16.)

But as strong as its pitching is, Bloomington's real strength is its lineup. The most dangerous hitter is Magglio Ordonez (33 batting win shares), followed closely by Ichiro Suzuki (30). Also posting 20+ batting win shares are Hanley Ramirez (25) and Jim Thome (24). Nick Swisher (16), Alfonso Soriano (16), and Adrian Beltre (15) provide additional run-scoring support.

In terms of defense, catcher Pudge Rodriguez led the team with 7 fielding win shares. His 2 fielding rating is consistent with that score. More surprising was the team's second highest fielding score: Alfonso Soriano (6 fielding win shares). Strat-O-Matic was less kind, giving him a 4 range in LF. However, they also give him a 4 range at 2B due to 1 inning of MLB play. At the very least, this gives him extra flexibility. At best, it may provide Bloomington with a chance to play "Strat-ball" and sneak a powerful bat into this infield position.


Fleetwood Walkers
Batting Win Shares: 195.7 (3rd of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 144.2 (2nd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 50.4 (9th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 390.3 (2nd of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 111-51

Fleetwood made the BRASSball playoffs in 2007 as a Wild Card only to fall to Bloomington in the Divisional Series. The two teams may very well face each other again in the 2008 playoffs, as Fleetwood also has a strong, well-balanced roster.

Its pitching staff lacks the star power of other teams, but is deep. Its rotation consists of Kelvim Escobar (18 pitching win shares), Chad Billingsley (14), Daisuke Matsuzaka (13), A.J. Burnett (12), and Greg Maddux (11). The bullpen is even stronger, featuring Heath Bell (13), Manny Corpas (13), Zack Greinke (10), Casey Janssen (9) and Scott Downs (8).

Fleetwood's lineup boasts star power in the form of David Wright (29 batting win shares), Miguel Cabrera (28), and Carlos Pena (28). Other key hitters are Carlos Beltran (21), Barry Bonds (19), and Nick Markakis (19).

In terms of defense, Carlos Beltran (7 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF), David Wright (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at 3B), Nick Markakis (3 fielding win shares; 2 range in RF), and Carlos Pena (2 win shares; 2 range at 1B) give the Walkers a host of solid defenders. However, despite earning nearly 7 fielding runs, shortstop Jason Bartlett earned only a 3 range from Strat-O-Matic. Coupled with Howie Kendrick's 3 range at second base, Fleetwood could suffer from mediocre defense at the important up-the-middle infield positions.


Maine Black Flies
Batting Win Shares: 177.7 (7th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 84.9 (17th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 53.5 (6th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 316.1 (9th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 90-72

Maine won just 73 games last season in a rebuilding year, but the Black Flies look to be much stronger in 2008.

Its pitching staff may be a bit thin to make an immediate playoff run, but its future upside is undeniable. Chien-Ming Wang (16 win shares) has already established himself as a top-flight starting pitcher. Yovani Gallardo (9) and Phil Hughes (4) will both begin making contributions in 2008, and Francisco Liriano should provide even more star power when he returns from Tommy John surgery in 2009.

Maine's lineup is already playoff-caliber. Jimmy Rollins (23 batting win shares) and B.J. Upton (20) provide an exciting core, with Jose Guillen (18) and Dmitri Young (16) providing power. Robinson Cano (15) also provides long-term stability at second base.

In the feild, Brad Ausmus led the team with 7 fielding win shares. His 2 range at catcher will help him achieve similar success in BRASSball. Robinson Cano also earned almost 7 fielding win shares, but only received a 3 range at 2B from Strat-O-Matic for his efforts. Other key defenders will be Jimmy Rollins (5 fielding win shares; 1 range at SS) and David DeJesus (5 fielding win shares; 2 range in CF).


Texas ChickenHawks
Batting Win Shares: 142.2 (12th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 89.5 (12th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 42.2 (16th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 273.9 (14th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 78-84

Texas suffered through a 50-win season in 2007, but opened up its checkbook in the off-season. The shopping spree looks effective, as the team has a great chance of posting a winning record in 2008.

Free agent signee Gil Meche (15 win shares) will top the rotation, with knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (10) and groundball pitcher Aaron Cook (10) also providing significant innings. The team's best pitcher may very well be reliever Rafael Betancourt, though, with nearly 15 pitching win shares to his credit.

The ChickenHawks lineup holds a nice mix of speed and power. Chone Figgins (19 batting win shares) and Edgar Renteria (15) will set the table, with Frank Thomas (17) and Jeff Kent (13) on hand to drive them in. Kenny Lofton (12), Jose Bautista (11), and Shannon Stewart (11) will help fill out the lineup.

Catcher Carlos Ruiz posted 7 win shares, continuing the trend of high fielding win-share scores for catchers. Despite this score, he received just a 3 range from Strat-O-Matic. Backup Mike Redmond (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at C) fared better. Jose Castillo (3 fielding win shares; 2 range at 3B) and part-time outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury (1 fielding win share; 2 range in OF) are the team's other top defenders.


Summary
The NL Central crown will likely go to either Bloomington or Fleetwood, with the second-place team holding an excellent chance at earning an NL Wild Card berth. Both Maine and Texas are also on the upswing, making this the strongest division in all of BRASSball.

2008 BRASSball Preview - NL East

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are very speculative, but should provide a reasonable glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the National League East teams: Glen Allen, Parkland, Port Richey and Springfield. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.
To see my preview of the AL Central, click here.
To see my preview of the AL West, click here.

Glen Allen Mets
Batting Win Shares: 135.5 (15th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 80.5 (20th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 57.9 (T-1st of 24)
Total Win Shares: 273.9 (T-15th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 78-84

With Albert Pujols on its roster, Glen Allen always seems to have a leg-up on it competition. Heading into 2008, it appears Pujols and the Mets once again have a good chance of making it to the BRASSball playoffs.

On the mound, Glen Allen will count on veteran John Smoltz (18 win shares) to be its ace. Jeff Suppan (10), Barry Zito (10), and Jamie Moyer (10) also give the team a solid staff of innings-eating veterans. The bullpen lacks big names, but Kevin Gregg (9 win shares) and Scott Proctor (7) should contribute solidly in relief.

As mentioned earlier, Pujols (29 batting win shares) is undoubtedly a stud. Beyond that, though, Glen Allen's lineup relies more of depth than star power. Yuniesky Betancourt (14), Ian Kinsler (13), Andre Ethier (11), and Chris Snyder (8) are among those who will take the field alongside Pujols.

Speaking of Snyder, over half of his total win shares (10) come from his fielding alone. That is a surprisingly high total (3rd in all of baseball behind Troy Tulowitzki's 11 and Kenji Johjima's 10), but one that is reasonably supported by a 2 catching rating by Strat-O-Matic.

In fact, Glen Allen's total fielding win shares score is tied for the highest in all of BRASSball. Betancourt (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS) and Pujols (2 fielding win shares; 1 range at 1B) will help translate that high score to the field, although Jacque Jones (7 fielding win shares; just a 3 range in the OF) and Juan Pierre (5 fielding win shares; just a 3 range in the OF) fared worse with their Strat ratings than they did with their win share totals.


Parkland Green
Batting Win Shares: 97.1 (20th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 85.0 (T-15th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 34.1 (22nd of 24)
Total Win Shares: 216.2 (20th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 61-101

Parkland kicks off its inaugural season in 2008, hoping to prove that it IS in fact easy being Green. The team may also be setting a new BRASSball trend, as it owns the only non-plural nickname in the league.

In any event, the Parkland Green's pitching staff is led by two young left-handers: Jeff Francis (16 win shares) and Oliver Perez (12). Scott Baker (9) will also play a key role in the rotation, with Brad Lidge (9) and Shawn Chacon (8) headlining the bullpen.

The star of the team's lineup will be hard-hitting lefty Brad Hawpe (19 batting win shares). Dustin Pedroia (12), Brendan Harris (11) and Luis Gonzalez (11) will also play key offensive roles.

In the field, the young Dustin Pedroia (7 fielding win shares; 2 range at 2B) and part-time shortstop Adam Everett (2 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS) will anchor the defense. Bengie Molina (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at C) will also contribute. Meanwhile, Alfredo Amezaga (3 fielding win shares) holds the unique distinction of being eligible to play at every position except catcher and pitcher.


Port Richey Everglades
Batting Win Shares: 74.8 (23rd of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 85.0 (T-15th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 38.8 (18th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 198.6 (21st of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 56-106

Long-time franchise Port Richey enters the new year still looking to add to its 2008 roster. That said, a few key pieces are already in place.

Right-hander Jamie Shields (16 win shares) will be the ace of the staff. Joining him in the rotation will be Chad Gaudin (10) and Chuck James (10). Japanese import Hideki Okajima (10 win shares) figures to be the centerpiece of the bullpen.

With the bat, the Everglades current do not stack up with the best teams in the league. However, J.J. Hardy (13 hitting win shares) appears primed for a break-through season at the plate, with Marlon Byrd (11) and Brian McCann (10) also likely to be key contributors.

Hardy also earned 6 fielding win shares, and will have the 2 range at shortstop to match. McCann (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at C) will also provide strong defense up the middle.


Springfield Isotopes
Batting Win Shares: 137.9 (14th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 88.2 (14th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 44.2 (14th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 270.3 (17th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 77-85

In recent years, Springfield has become a perennial playoff contender. The team's hopes are alive to achieve the same level of success again in 2008.

Kentucky Wildcat alum Joe Blanton (15 win shares) will anchor the team's rotation, with young Tim Lincecum (9) and veteran Steve Trachsel (8) also joining in. The team's true strength is a bullpen that can match up with the league's best: Pat Neshek (8), David Riske (8), Jamie Walker (8), Rudy Seanez (6), Chris Ray (5), and Manny Delcarmen (5).

The team's lineup features a number of strong hitters. Josh Willingham (19 batting win shares) and Justin Morneau (17) will provide the power, with Orlando Cabrera (16) and Mike Cameron (16) setting the table. Ken Griffey (14 batting win shares) will also provide left-handed balance.

The team also has some strong defenders. Orlando Cabrera (9 fielding win shares; 1 range at SS) and Aaron Hill (8 fielding win shares; 2 range at 2B) will star in the infield, with Mike Cameron (6 fielding win shares; 2 range in CF) tracking down fly balls in center field.

Note: Since the analysis above, the Isotopes acquired starting pitcher Nate Robertson (8 pitching win shares) from Box City in exchange for Cliff Lee (1 win share), Clay Hensley (-1), Kevin Melillo (0) and cash. This acquisition figures to add about 2 more wins to Springfield's total in 2008.

Summary
Consistent with recent history, this division once again appears likely to be a close battle between Glen Allen and Springfield. Each team may need to make the division race count, as their middle-of-the-pack projected records may make a Wild Card berth hard to achieve.

2008 BRASSball Preview - AL West

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are likely far from foolproof, but should provide a glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the American League West teams: Brooklyn, Malibu, Santa Barbara, and Thousand Oaks. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.
To see my preview of the AL Central, click here.

Brooklyn Bulldogs
Batting Win Shares: 86.5 (22nd of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 96.8 (10th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 37.3 (20th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 220.6 (19th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 63-99

Looking ahead to 2008, it appears Brooklyn is still filling out its roster. That said, it has a few solid pieces in place already.

The Bulldogs pitching staff features ace Brandon Webb (26 win shares) and two other solid starters in Javier Vazquez (20) and Carlos Zambrano (17). Jon Rauch (9 win shares) will also be on hand to stabilize the bullpen.

Brooklyn's roster also features a couple of solid hitters in Garrett Atkins (18 batting win shares) and Austin Kearns (17) . For the Bulldogs to complete for a playoff berth, it likely will need to complement these hitters with more offensive firepower.

In terms of fielding, Coco Crisp earned nearly 9 full win shares with his fielding alone. With a 2 range rating in center field, he should bring similar value to his squad in BRASSball. Yadier Molina also earned an outstanding number of fielding win shares (7), and features an equally impressive 1 rating at catcher by Strat-O-Matic.


Malibu Flames
Batting Win Shares: 139.0 (13th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 133.4 (3rd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 56.2 (3rd of 24)
Total Win Shares: 328.6 (8th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 93-69

Malibu, formerly known as the Toledo Mudhens, should field a strong team in 2008 with a stable offense, an excellent pitching and equally strong defense.

At the plate, second baseman Placido Polanco (18 batting win shares) will star. The team will also benefit from strong production by Paul Konerko (16) at first base and Hideki Matsui (15) in left field.

Malibu's team will really shine on the mound. Young Fausto Carmona (23 win shares) projects to be the team's best pitcher, with Brad Penny (21) trailing just behind. Bronson Arroyo (13), Carlos Silva (12), and Jarrod Washburn (11) will round out the rotation. In the bullpen, Jose Valverde (12 win shares) will lead with support from Brian Fuentes (8) and Chad Cordero (8).

Catcher Brian Schneider (7 fielding win shares) captains the defense, and will hold a 2 rating in our replay. Shortstop Julio Lugo posted an impressive 6 defensive win shares, but earned just a 3 range rating by Strat-O-Matic. Placido Polanco (6 defensive win shares) faired better with the game makers, receiving a 2 range at second base.


Santa Barbara Outlaws
Batting Win Shares: 173.3 (8th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 127.4 (4th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 50.1 (10th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 350.8 (5th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 100-62

With a deep pitching staff and strong lineup, the Santa Barbara Outlaws look primed for a strong season in 2008.

Tim Hudson (18 win shares) will spearhead the rotation, with Jered Weaver (12) and Brian Bannister (12) also playing key roles. The team's bullpen looks even stronger with Jonathan Papelbon (12 win shares), Brandon Lyon (11), Tony Pena (10) and Mariano Rivera (9).

Adrian Gonzalez (24 batting win shares) and Carlos Lee (21) will lead a strong lineup. Other major contributors on offense will be Curtis Granderson (20), Torii Hunter (20), Carlos Guillen (17), and Gary Sheffield (16).

The Outlaws will field a rock-solid defense. Stars with the leather will be Jack Wilson (7 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS), Orlando Hudson (6 fielding win shares; 1 range at 2B), Curtis Granderson (6 fielding win shares; 2 range in OF), and Torii Hunter (5 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF).


Thousand Oaks Tigers
Batting Win Shares: 123.9 (18th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 102.5 (9th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 54.3 (5th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 280.7 (12th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 80-82

The Thousand Oaks Tigers will roar into the 2008 season with a solid team.

John Lackey (22 win shares) and Dan Haren (19) provide a formidable 1-2 punch in the rotation, with Matt Guerrier (10) contributing in the bullpen. If the Tigers can add to this solid core, the pitching can be playoff caliber.

At the dish, Aramis Ramirez (18 batting win shares) will lead the team. He will be joined by teammates Manny Ramirez (12), Luis Castillo (12), Ronnie Belliard (11), Josh Hamilton (11), and Kevin Millar (11).

Andruw Jones (8 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF), Omar Vizquel (7 fielding win shares; 1 range at SS), and Luis Castillo (3 fielding win shares; 2 range at 2B) give Thousand Oaks amazing up-the-middle defense.


Summary
As currently constructed, Santa Barbara and Malibu look to be serious playoff contenders in 2008. Thousand Oaks is also well positioned for a post-season push if it finds a way to add to its already solid core.

2008 BRASSball Preview - AL Central

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are likely far from foolproof, but should provide a glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the American League Central teams: Box City, Cook County, Louisville, and Plaza. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.

Box City Parcelmen
Batting Win Shares: 124.8 (17th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 77.2 (21st of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 37.1 (21st of 24)
Total Win Shares: 239.1 (18th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 68-94

The Box City Parcelmen head into 2008 as the defending BRASSball champions. Next year's team is not nearly as talented as the 2007 squad, but it still has some quality players.

On the mound, Aaron Harang (20 win shares) will likely be the ace of the staff. The team's true strength will likely be its bullpen, where it features top relievers Takashi Saito (16 win shares) and Francisco Rodriguez (12).

Catcher Jorge Posada (19 batting win shares) looks primed for an all-star season behind the plate. Other key position players will be Macier Izturis (13) and Miguel Tejada (12), Sammy Sosa (12), Jason Bay (12) and Mark DeRosa (11).

Posada (7 fielding win shares) and DeRosa (5 fielding win shares) earned the team's highest defensive win share scores. Posada's 2 range behind the plate is consistent with this fielding score, although DeRosa will need to rely on versatility (carded at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF) rather than a dazzling glove (3 range at 2B and 3B, 4 range elsewhere).


Cook County Maulers
Batting Win Shares: 193.6 (4th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 157.2 (1st of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 47.1 (11th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 397.9 (1st of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 113-49

Cook County always seems to be a title contender, and that will apparently remain true in 2008 as well.

Based on win share totals, the Maulers appear to have the strongest pitching staff in BRASSball. Depth is a major factor, as the team features 8 pitchers with double-digit win share totals. C.C. Sabathia (24 win shares) and Erik Bedard (19) will star in the rotation. Bobby Jenks (14 win shares), Jeremy Accardo (12), and Billy Wagner (11) will play key roles in the bullpen.

The team also features an amazingly deep starting lineup, with 7 players earning 17 or more hitting win shares each: Prince Fielder (27), Chipper Jones (24), Chase Utley (23), Pat Burrell (19), Carl Crawford (19), Alex Rios (18), and Freddy Sanchez (17).

The team's best fielding win share scores came from Troy Tulowitzki (11 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS) and Russell Martin (9 fielding win shares; 1 range at C).


Louisville Colonels
Batting Win Shares: 69.4 (24th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 46.5 (23rd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 31.8 (23rd of 24)
Total Win Shares: 147.7 (24th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 42-120

With a roster that is likely still in flux, Louisville will likely look at 2008 as a chance to evaluate its roster and continue building for the future.

At present, the team's two best pitchers appear to be relievers: Francisco "Coco" Cordero (10 win shares) and Huston Street (8). Kris Benson will miss the entire 2008 season due to injury, but the team likely looks for a comeback from him in the years to come.

Young second baseman Brandon Phillips (12 hitting win shares) gives Louisville a player to build around for the future, with Johnny Damon (13) and Matt Stairs (12) also on hand to deliver some offensive punch.

In the field, Brandon Phillips (6 fielding win shares; 1 range at 2B) and John McDonald (5 fielding win shares; 1 range at SS) make the team's middle infield incredibly strong.


Plaza Lions
Batting Win Shares: 196.3 (2nd of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 117.9 (6th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 45.3 (13th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 359.5 (4th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 102-60

The Plaza Lions appear primed for another playoff run in 2008 with a top offense and a strong pitching staff.

Justin Verlander (16 win shares) will headline the starting rotation. Supporting him will be right-handers Derek Lowe (13), Shaun Marcum (11) Ben Sheets (11) and Curt Schilling (10). Jason Isringhausen (12 win shares) will anchor the bullpen.

Plaza features a bevy of strong hitters, with seven players posting 16 or more batting win shares: David Ortiz (29), Lance Berkman (22), Ryan Braun (20), Adam Dunn (19), Aaron Rowand (18), Michael Young (18) and James Loney (16).

With the glove, Kenji Johjima earned a whopping 10 fielding win shares yet was only given a 3 range rating by Strat-O-Matic. Perhaps his throwing arm will close this apparent gap. Aaron Rowand was next with 5 fielding win shares, and his 1 range in CF matches this score (and then some).


Summary
Based on the analysis above, Cook County and Plaza are likely the class of this division. Both teams are well positioned to reach the American League playoffs. Box City and Louisville likely will look toward trades and the draft to strengthen their rosters prior to Opening Day.

2008 BRASSball Preview - AL East

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. This post will review the American League East teams: Hessville, Superior, Tinley, and Windy City. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

Without further ado...

Hessville Everreadys
Batting Win Shares: 148.9 (10th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 81.9 (19th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 41.2 (17th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 272.0 (16th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 77-85

Based on the totals above, it appears Hessville's lineup will lead the team's charge next season. Bobby Abreu (17 batting win shares), Travis Hafner (17), Delmon Young (15), Randy Winn (14), Kevin Kouzmanoff (13), and Carlos Delgado (11) all earned double-digit win shares in 2007.

Jeremy Guthire (14 pitching win shares) looks to be the team's best pitcher, with Orlando Hernandez (11), Ryan Franklin (9), and Rafael Soriano (8) helping him out. If the team is looking to improve in the short run, this would appear to be the primary area of need.

The team's defensive standout may be Chris Young, who earned nearly 7 win shares with his glove alone. The 2 range he received in center field should help him fulfill on that win share total.


Superior Blues
Batting Win Shares: 118.3 (19th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 32.9 (24th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 38.4 (19th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 189.6 (23rd of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 54-108

The best hitters on this squad project to be first baseman Kevin Youkilis (18 batting win shares) and right fielder Jeff Francoeur (16). The team's infield will also be a strength thanks to the bats of shortstop Khalil Green (14), second baseman Dan Uggla (13), and third baseman Troy Glaus (11).

Livan Hernandez (11 win shares) will lead the pitching staff. Todd Jones (6), Boof Bonser (5), and Zach Miner also figure to make significant contributions on the mound.

The team's best fielding win share scores came from Francoeur (6 fielding win shares; 1 range in RF), Greene (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS), and Jason Kendall (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at C).


Tinley Redbirds
Batting Win Shares: 142.4 (11th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 82.3 (18th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 55.4 (4th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 280.1 (13th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 80-82

Tinley will feature a well-balanced crop of hitters in 2008. Jose Vidro (15 hitting win shares), Edwin Encarnacion (15), Casey Kotchman (14), Mark Reynolds (12), Garret Anderson (12), and Luke Scott (10) all posted solid batting win share totals.

The team's pitching staff is less deep, but has some solid talent in the form of Russ Springer (10 win shares), Trevor Hoffman (9), Jake Westbrook (9), and Wandy Rodriguez (8).

The team's true win share strength is in its fielding total. Shortstop Juan Uribe earned 9 win shares alone with his glove, and Strat-O-Matic has shown similar faith by awarding him a 2 range rating. Jason Varitek will also likely earn his 7 fielding win shares with his 1 range at catcher.


Windy City Slickers
Batting Win Shares: 150.2 (9th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 88.6 (13th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 42.9 (15th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 281.7 (11th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 80-82

Windy City appears to have the strongest pitching in this division. Mark Buehrle (17 win shares) posted the best pitching win share total in the AL East, and will be supported in the rotation by Rich Hill (14) and Jon Garland (14).

The true star of the team, though, is third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez posted the highest hitting win share total in all of BRASSball with 35. Jose Reyes (18 batting win shares), Chris Duncan (16), and Ryan Church (15) will help Rodriguez put runs on the board.

The team's best fielding win share score came courtesy of Mark Ellis (almost 9 fielding win shares), consistent with his 2 range at second base. Shortstop Jose Reyes also posted a strong fielding score of 6 win shares, and also earned a 2 range for his efforts.


Summary
Based on the analysis above, this division could be a close three-team race between Windy City, Tinley, and Hessville. Windy City may hold a slight edge thanks to its superstar Alex Rodriguez, its solid starting pitching, and its strong infield defense.

2008 BRASSball Preview - Introduction

With the 2007 holiday season fading into the rear-view mirror, my thoughts have turned to 2008. Specifically, I can't help but wonder a few things...

- Who will become our new president?
- Will the 2008 Olympic medals from Beijing give our world's best athletes lead poisoning?
- And, most importantly, how will our 2008 BRASSball season shape up?

To answer this last question, I decided to run a little experiment using the concept of "Win Shares."

Introduced by Bill James in this 2002 book, Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his team’s wins and distills them into a single number. This single number represents the number of wins contributed directly by the player to his team, times three. In other words, a player with 3 win shares would contribute about 1 win to his team. Scores in the 20s are generally very good...scores in the 30s or above are MVP caliber.

In an effort to gauge the approximate strength of each BRASSball team, I took each team's roster (as of December 23, 2007) and assigned a Win Share value to each player. I then totaled each team's roster to determine a relative "strength" score for that team. Beginning with this post -- and continuing in additional posts to follow -- I'll be presenting my findings.

Before beginning, here are some final thoughts, assumptions, and admissions:

- I realize that many teams are still assembling their final roster, and that the upcoming draft will also change these scores. That said, these findings provide a valuable off-season baseline.

- I used Win Share figures from The Hardball Times website. The authors of this site have tweaked the original Bill James formula, so these Win Share scores may differ slightly from Win Share figures published elsewhere.

- Undoubtedly, it is probably not very "scientifically" sound of me to appropriate these MLB Win Share figures directly into our league. Given our league's smaller size (24 teams instead of 30) and different rules (DH for all teams, not just one league), I'm sure the "real" BRASSball scores would differ a bit. However, these MLB scores should still serve as a reasonable proxy for player value in our league.

- The Hardball Times breaks its Win Share scores into 3 areas: hitting, pitching, and fielding. This allows us to judge not just each team's overall strength, but also the caliber of their batters, pitchers, and (in theory) fielders separately.

- In real life, pitchers do receive "batting" Win Share scores. (For example, Arizona pitcher Micah Owings received 4 win shares with his batting alone. Meanwhile, his teammate Doug Davis received a -3 score.) Since our league does not require pitchers to bat, I zeroed out all hitting scores for pitchers.

- For the sake of completeness, I have included Fielding Win Shares in my analysis. I have done so even though Strat-O-Matic has its own unique fielding ratings. My reasoning is that: a) I've taken enough liberties with the Win Share concept already; b) that fielding is unarguably important in both MLB and Strat; and c) that any discrepancies between the Win Shares and Strat-O-Matic fielding systems would hopefully "even out" in the end. (Note: It does not appear that The Hardball Times assigned any fielding scores to pitchers, as all pitchers had "zero" scores for fielding.)

- Finally, in totaling each team's Win Share scores, it became apparent that these Win Share scores did not translate directly to one expected BRASSball win per 3 MLB Win Shares. For example, if I divided each BRASSball team's score by 3 to arrive at an "expected win" total, the average team would have won 90+ BRASSball games (which is impossible). I figure this discrepancy was due to: a) our league's smaller player pool changing the underlying formulae; and b) my elimination of batting Win Shares from pitcher scores. To compensate, I have assumed that one BRASSball win will require about 3.5 MLB Win Shares. This assumption delivers the desired BRASSball average of 81 wins per team.

Hopefully all of that (or at least most of that) made some sense. Also, note that this entire project is just for entertainment. I am as skeptical as anyone as to how this will all correlate to actual "on field" BRASSball performance!

Thanks for your patience, and I look forward to publishing my findings in the coming days. We'll start with the AL East and make our way through all six BRASSball divisions. We'll then look at the findings overall, and predict our upcoming season's strongest divisions and playoff contenders.