2008 BRASSball Preview - AL Central

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are likely far from foolproof, but should provide a glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the American League Central teams: Box City, Cook County, Louisville, and Plaza. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.

Box City Parcelmen
Batting Win Shares: 124.8 (17th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 77.2 (21st of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 37.1 (21st of 24)
Total Win Shares: 239.1 (18th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 68-94

The Box City Parcelmen head into 2008 as the defending BRASSball champions. Next year's team is not nearly as talented as the 2007 squad, but it still has some quality players.

On the mound, Aaron Harang (20 win shares) will likely be the ace of the staff. The team's true strength will likely be its bullpen, where it features top relievers Takashi Saito (16 win shares) and Francisco Rodriguez (12).

Catcher Jorge Posada (19 batting win shares) looks primed for an all-star season behind the plate. Other key position players will be Macier Izturis (13) and Miguel Tejada (12), Sammy Sosa (12), Jason Bay (12) and Mark DeRosa (11).

Posada (7 fielding win shares) and DeRosa (5 fielding win shares) earned the team's highest defensive win share scores. Posada's 2 range behind the plate is consistent with this fielding score, although DeRosa will need to rely on versatility (carded at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF) rather than a dazzling glove (3 range at 2B and 3B, 4 range elsewhere).


Cook County Maulers
Batting Win Shares: 193.6 (4th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 157.2 (1st of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 47.1 (11th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 397.9 (1st of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 113-49

Cook County always seems to be a title contender, and that will apparently remain true in 2008 as well.

Based on win share totals, the Maulers appear to have the strongest pitching staff in BRASSball. Depth is a major factor, as the team features 8 pitchers with double-digit win share totals. C.C. Sabathia (24 win shares) and Erik Bedard (19) will star in the rotation. Bobby Jenks (14 win shares), Jeremy Accardo (12), and Billy Wagner (11) will play key roles in the bullpen.

The team also features an amazingly deep starting lineup, with 7 players earning 17 or more hitting win shares each: Prince Fielder (27), Chipper Jones (24), Chase Utley (23), Pat Burrell (19), Carl Crawford (19), Alex Rios (18), and Freddy Sanchez (17).

The team's best fielding win share scores came from Troy Tulowitzki (11 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS) and Russell Martin (9 fielding win shares; 1 range at C).


Louisville Colonels
Batting Win Shares: 69.4 (24th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 46.5 (23rd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 31.8 (23rd of 24)
Total Win Shares: 147.7 (24th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 42-120

With a roster that is likely still in flux, Louisville will likely look at 2008 as a chance to evaluate its roster and continue building for the future.

At present, the team's two best pitchers appear to be relievers: Francisco "Coco" Cordero (10 win shares) and Huston Street (8). Kris Benson will miss the entire 2008 season due to injury, but the team likely looks for a comeback from him in the years to come.

Young second baseman Brandon Phillips (12 hitting win shares) gives Louisville a player to build around for the future, with Johnny Damon (13) and Matt Stairs (12) also on hand to deliver some offensive punch.

In the field, Brandon Phillips (6 fielding win shares; 1 range at 2B) and John McDonald (5 fielding win shares; 1 range at SS) make the team's middle infield incredibly strong.


Plaza Lions
Batting Win Shares: 196.3 (2nd of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 117.9 (6th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 45.3 (13th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 359.5 (4th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 102-60

The Plaza Lions appear primed for another playoff run in 2008 with a top offense and a strong pitching staff.

Justin Verlander (16 win shares) will headline the starting rotation. Supporting him will be right-handers Derek Lowe (13), Shaun Marcum (11) Ben Sheets (11) and Curt Schilling (10). Jason Isringhausen (12 win shares) will anchor the bullpen.

Plaza features a bevy of strong hitters, with seven players posting 16 or more batting win shares: David Ortiz (29), Lance Berkman (22), Ryan Braun (20), Adam Dunn (19), Aaron Rowand (18), Michael Young (18) and James Loney (16).

With the glove, Kenji Johjima earned a whopping 10 fielding win shares yet was only given a 3 range rating by Strat-O-Matic. Perhaps his throwing arm will close this apparent gap. Aaron Rowand was next with 5 fielding win shares, and his 1 range in CF matches this score (and then some).


Summary
Based on the analysis above, Cook County and Plaza are likely the class of this division. Both teams are well positioned to reach the American League playoffs. Box City and Louisville likely will look toward trades and the draft to strengthen their rosters prior to Opening Day.