Tuesday, December 25, 2007

2008 BRASSball Preview - AL East

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. This post will review the American League East teams: Hessville, Superior, Tinley, and Windy City. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

Without further ado...

Hessville Everreadys
Batting Win Shares: 148.9 (10th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 81.9 (19th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 41.2 (17th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 272.0 (16th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 77-85

Based on the totals above, it appears Hessville's lineup will lead the team's charge next season. Bobby Abreu (17 batting win shares), Travis Hafner (17), Delmon Young (15), Randy Winn (14), Kevin Kouzmanoff (13), and Carlos Delgado (11) all earned double-digit win shares in 2007.

Jeremy Guthire (14 pitching win shares) looks to be the team's best pitcher, with Orlando Hernandez (11), Ryan Franklin (9), and Rafael Soriano (8) helping him out. If the team is looking to improve in the short run, this would appear to be the primary area of need.

The team's defensive standout may be Chris Young, who earned nearly 7 win shares with his glove alone. The 2 range he received in center field should help him fulfill on that win share total.


Superior Blues
Batting Win Shares: 118.3 (19th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 32.9 (24th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 38.4 (19th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 189.6 (23rd of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 54-108

The best hitters on this squad project to be first baseman Kevin Youkilis (18 batting win shares) and right fielder Jeff Francoeur (16). The team's infield will also be a strength thanks to the bats of shortstop Khalil Green (14), second baseman Dan Uggla (13), and third baseman Troy Glaus (11).

Livan Hernandez (11 win shares) will lead the pitching staff. Todd Jones (6), Boof Bonser (5), and Zach Miner also figure to make significant contributions on the mound.

The team's best fielding win share scores came from Francoeur (6 fielding win shares; 1 range in RF), Greene (6 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS), and Jason Kendall (5 fielding win shares; 2 range at C).


Tinley Redbirds
Batting Win Shares: 142.4 (11th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 82.3 (18th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 55.4 (4th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 280.1 (13th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 80-82

Tinley will feature a well-balanced crop of hitters in 2008. Jose Vidro (15 hitting win shares), Edwin Encarnacion (15), Casey Kotchman (14), Mark Reynolds (12), Garret Anderson (12), and Luke Scott (10) all posted solid batting win share totals.

The team's pitching staff is less deep, but has some solid talent in the form of Russ Springer (10 win shares), Trevor Hoffman (9), Jake Westbrook (9), and Wandy Rodriguez (8).

The team's true win share strength is in its fielding total. Shortstop Juan Uribe earned 9 win shares alone with his glove, and Strat-O-Matic has shown similar faith by awarding him a 2 range rating. Jason Varitek will also likely earn his 7 fielding win shares with his 1 range at catcher.


Windy City Slickers
Batting Win Shares: 150.2 (9th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 88.6 (13th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 42.9 (15th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 281.7 (11th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 80-82

Windy City appears to have the strongest pitching in this division. Mark Buehrle (17 win shares) posted the best pitching win share total in the AL East, and will be supported in the rotation by Rich Hill (14) and Jon Garland (14).

The true star of the team, though, is third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez posted the highest hitting win share total in all of BRASSball with 35. Jose Reyes (18 batting win shares), Chris Duncan (16), and Ryan Church (15) will help Rodriguez put runs on the board.

The team's best fielding win share score came courtesy of Mark Ellis (almost 9 fielding win shares), consistent with his 2 range at second base. Shortstop Jose Reyes also posted a strong fielding score of 6 win shares, and also earned a 2 range for his efforts.


Summary
Based on the analysis above, this division could be a close three-team race between Windy City, Tinley, and Hessville. Windy City may hold a slight edge thanks to its superstar Alex Rodriguez, its solid starting pitching, and its strong infield defense.

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