Thursday, December 27, 2007

2008 BRASSball Preview - AL West

As discussed in my introduction, I will be using the concept of Win Shares to preview our upcoming BRASSball season. The conclusions below are likely far from foolproof, but should provide a glimpse into the season ahead.

This post will review the American League West teams: Brooklyn, Malibu, Santa Barbara, and Thousand Oaks. To see each team's roster and win share totals, click on the images below.

To see my preview of the AL East, click here.
To see my preview of the AL Central, click here.

Brooklyn Bulldogs
Batting Win Shares: 86.5 (22nd of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 96.8 (10th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 37.3 (20th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 220.6 (19th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 63-99

Looking ahead to 2008, it appears Brooklyn is still filling out its roster. That said, it has a few solid pieces in place already.

The Bulldogs pitching staff features ace Brandon Webb (26 win shares) and two other solid starters in Javier Vazquez (20) and Carlos Zambrano (17). Jon Rauch (9 win shares) will also be on hand to stabilize the bullpen.

Brooklyn's roster also features a couple of solid hitters in Garrett Atkins (18 batting win shares) and Austin Kearns (17) . For the Bulldogs to complete for a playoff berth, it likely will need to complement these hitters with more offensive firepower.

In terms of fielding, Coco Crisp earned nearly 9 full win shares with his fielding alone. With a 2 range rating in center field, he should bring similar value to his squad in BRASSball. Yadier Molina also earned an outstanding number of fielding win shares (7), and features an equally impressive 1 rating at catcher by Strat-O-Matic.


Malibu Flames
Batting Win Shares: 139.0 (13th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 133.4 (3rd of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 56.2 (3rd of 24)
Total Win Shares: 328.6 (8th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 93-69

Malibu, formerly known as the Toledo Mudhens, should field a strong team in 2008 with a stable offense, an excellent pitching and equally strong defense.

At the plate, second baseman Placido Polanco (18 batting win shares) will star. The team will also benefit from strong production by Paul Konerko (16) at first base and Hideki Matsui (15) in left field.

Malibu's team will really shine on the mound. Young Fausto Carmona (23 win shares) projects to be the team's best pitcher, with Brad Penny (21) trailing just behind. Bronson Arroyo (13), Carlos Silva (12), and Jarrod Washburn (11) will round out the rotation. In the bullpen, Jose Valverde (12 win shares) will lead with support from Brian Fuentes (8) and Chad Cordero (8).

Catcher Brian Schneider (7 fielding win shares) captains the defense, and will hold a 2 rating in our replay. Shortstop Julio Lugo posted an impressive 6 defensive win shares, but earned just a 3 range rating by Strat-O-Matic. Placido Polanco (6 defensive win shares) faired better with the game makers, receiving a 2 range at second base.


Santa Barbara Outlaws
Batting Win Shares: 173.3 (8th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 127.4 (4th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 50.1 (10th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 350.8 (5th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 100-62

With a deep pitching staff and strong lineup, the Santa Barbara Outlaws look primed for a strong season in 2008.

Tim Hudson (18 win shares) will spearhead the rotation, with Jered Weaver (12) and Brian Bannister (12) also playing key roles. The team's bullpen looks even stronger with Jonathan Papelbon (12 win shares), Brandon Lyon (11), Tony Pena (10) and Mariano Rivera (9).

Adrian Gonzalez (24 batting win shares) and Carlos Lee (21) will lead a strong lineup. Other major contributors on offense will be Curtis Granderson (20), Torii Hunter (20), Carlos Guillen (17), and Gary Sheffield (16).

The Outlaws will field a rock-solid defense. Stars with the leather will be Jack Wilson (7 fielding win shares; 2 range at SS), Orlando Hudson (6 fielding win shares; 1 range at 2B), Curtis Granderson (6 fielding win shares; 2 range in OF), and Torii Hunter (5 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF).


Thousand Oaks Tigers
Batting Win Shares: 123.9 (18th of 24)
Pitching Win Shares: 102.5 (9th of 24)
Fielding Win Shares: 54.3 (5th of 24)
Total Win Shares: 280.7 (12th of 24)
Expected 2008 Record: 80-82

The Thousand Oaks Tigers will roar into the 2008 season with a solid team.

John Lackey (22 win shares) and Dan Haren (19) provide a formidable 1-2 punch in the rotation, with Matt Guerrier (10) contributing in the bullpen. If the Tigers can add to this solid core, the pitching can be playoff caliber.

At the dish, Aramis Ramirez (18 batting win shares) will lead the team. He will be joined by teammates Manny Ramirez (12), Luis Castillo (12), Ronnie Belliard (11), Josh Hamilton (11), and Kevin Millar (11).

Andruw Jones (8 fielding win shares; 1 range in CF), Omar Vizquel (7 fielding win shares; 1 range at SS), and Luis Castillo (3 fielding win shares; 2 range at 2B) give Thousand Oaks amazing up-the-middle defense.


Summary
As currently constructed, Santa Barbara and Malibu look to be serious playoff contenders in 2008. Thousand Oaks is also well positioned for a post-season push if it finds a way to add to its already solid core.

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