Sunday, October 26, 2008

NL Divisional Series Preview: Fleetwood vs. Ocala

Fleetwood Walkers - NL Central Runner-Up
122-40 (.753)

Offense: 6.81 runs per game (2nd of 12)
Defense: 3.94 runs per game (2nd of 12)
Pythagorean Record: 121-41 (.749)

Team Summary:
The 2008 Fleetwood Walkers are perhaps BRASSball's strongest wild-card entrant ever. The team set a franchise record with 122 wins during the regular season, but finished one game behind the powerful Bloomington Bees. Fleetwood was particularly strong at home, posting a 64-17 (.790) record at John Locke Field. The Walkers also showed a knack of winning extra-inning games, posting 5 wins in 7 tries.

Fleetwood's offense was arguably the best in BRASSball, boasting intimidating weapons in DH Miguel Cabrera (.319, 40 HR, 132 RBI), 1B Carlos Pena (.305, 41 HR, 127 RBI), and 3B David Wright (.325, 55 doubles, 28 HR, 111 RBI). The Walkers also once again held true to their nickname, collecting 709 bases-on-balls (2nd in BRASSball).

Fleetwood's pitching staff was equally dominant, finishing 2nd in the National League in runs allowed. Starters A.J. Burnett (15-5, 3.12 ERA) and Greg Maddux (23-3, 3.47 ERA) led the staff, while relievers Heath Bell (13-6, 2.26 ERA, 14 SV) and Manny Corpas (6-2, 1.55 ERA, 19 SV) anchored the bullpen.

The team's defense also played a strong role in preventing runs, converting 72.9% of its x-chart chances into outs (3rd in NL).

For Fleetwood to beat Ocala, its right-handed starting pitchers must shut down Ocala's bevy of strong left-handed bats. The Walkers will also need to find a way to score against Ocala's stable of strong right-handed pitching, perhaps putting more pressure on lefty sluggers Barry Bonds and Carlos Pena to produce.

Neither team makes much use of the stolen base or "small ball" in general, so expect to see lots of walks, strikeouts, and long balls.

Fleetwood Lineup:
1-Nick Markakis (RF) .276/.329/.437, 20 HR, 98 RBI
2-David Wright (3B) .325/.414/.546, 28 HR, 111 RBI, 13 SB
3-Barry Bonds (LF) .278/.439/.597, 36 HR, 100 RBI
4-Miguel Cabrera (DH) .319/.406/.576, 40 HR, 132 RBI
5-Carlos Pena (1B) .305/.437/.634, 41 HR, 127 RBI
6-Carlos Beltran (CF) .270/.339/.513, 34 HR, 117 RBI
7-Howie Kendrick (2B) .312/.352/.482, 7 HR, 49 RBI
8-Ryan Doumit (C) .271/.372/.514, 13 HR, 52 RBI
9-Jason Bartlett (SS) .281/.345/.400, 6 HR, 62 RBI, 10 SB

Fleetwood Bench:
Asdrubal Cabrera (IF) .377/.427/.593, 7 HR, 25 RBI
Melky Cabrera (OF) .261/.333/.395, 2 HR, 20 RBI
Jesus Flores (C) .302/.333/.529, 11 HR, 41 RBI
Ruben Gotay (IF) .313/.357/.421, 1 HR, 20 RBI
Josh Phelps (1B) .297/.388/.471, 5 HR, 27 RBI
Cody Ross (OF) .379/.448/.791, 16 HR, 51 RBI

Fleetwood Rotation:
RHP A.J. Burnett (15-5, 3.12 ERA, 173 IP, 167 K)
RHP Chad Billingsley (15-5, 3.51 ERA, 154 IP, 144 K)
RHP Kelvim Escobar (21-4, 4.27 ERA, 205 IP, 161 K)
RHP Greg Maddux (23-3, 3.47 ERA, 207 IP, 118 K)

Fleetwood Bullpen:
RHP Manny Corpas (6-2, 1.55 ERA, 19 SV)
RHP Heath Bell (13-6, 2.26 ERA, 14 SV)
LHP Scott Downs (4-2, 1.94 ERA, 3 SV)
RHP Casey Janssen (0-0, 4.20 ERA, 6 SV)
LHP Randy Johnson (4-3, 3.62 ERA)
RHP Zack Greinke (3-2, 5.79 ERA, 5 SV)

_______________________________________

Ocala Ocelots - NL West Champion
108-54 (.667)

Offense: 5.97 runs per game (3rd of 12)
Defense: 4.23 runs per game (T-3rd of 12)
Pythagorean Record: 108-54 (.665)

Team Summary:
The Ocala Ocelots started the season slowly, posting a 13-15 record in April. From that point onward, though, manager Eddie Murray and his team never looked back. Over the last 5 months of the BRASSball regular season, Ocala collected 95 wins against just 39 losses (.709 winning percentage). In fact, with a 19-3 record in September, the Ocelots enter the post-season as perhaps the hottest team in BRASSball.

Ocala's 2008 squad was an amazing well-balanced group, with both an offense and a defense that ranked 3rd in the National League in runs scored/allowed. At the plate, Ocala posted strikingly similar batting statistics against right-handed pitchers (.284/.366/.461) and left-handed pitchers (.288/.366/.446). On the mound, Ocala starting pitchers had the 3rd best ERA in the NL (4.17) while its bullpen had the 2nd best (3.17).

In addition to the above, one unquestioned strength of this team is its defense. During the 2008 campaign, Ocala led the National League by converting 78% of its x-chart chances into outs. In all of BRASSball, only the American League's Santa Barbara Outlaws did better (with a 79% conversion rate). Third baseman Mike Lowell (89.9%) and center fielder Grady Sizemore (97.7%) were particularly impressive with the glove in 2008.

Ocala's top offensive players were Sizemore (.273, 32 HR, 28 SB, 107 BB), shortstop Derek Jeter (.317, 47 2B, 18 SB, 79 BB), and first baseman Todd Helton (.307, 33 HR, 117 BB). These players were not the only Ocelots to recognize the value of the base-on-balls, as the team led all of BRASSball with 723 free passes.

On the mound, Ocala's pitching staff was anchored by two right-handed aces in Jake Peavy (18-8, 3.58 ERA) and Roy Oswalt (16-6, 3.34 ERA). Other key hurlers include starting pitcher Dustin McGowan (18-8, 3.67 ERA), closer Carlos Marmol (6-4, 2.01 ERA, 33 SV), and set-up man Saul Rivera (6-3, 2.19 ERA, 6 SV).

To advance past the Fleetwood Walkers, Ocala will lean heavily on Peavy and Oswalt. Sizemore and Jeter will also play key roles, as their presence on the base paths should open up holes for sluggers Helton and Lowell.

With both teams built around the base-on-balls, this series may very well go to the pitching staff that allows the fewest free passes.

But enough analysis. It's time to play ball!

Ocala Lineup:
1-Grady Sizemore (CF) .273/.379/.483, 32 HR, 110 RBI, 28 SB
2-Derek Jeter (SS) .317/.400/.414, 2 HR, 80 RBI
3-Todd Helton (1B) .307/.422/.544, 33 HR, 110 RBI
4-Mike Lowell (3B) .303/.363/.488, 24 HR, 104 RBI
5-Raul Ibanez (DH) .301/.361/.551, 27 HR, 92 RBI
6-Joe Mauer (C) .300/.380/.490, 19 HR, 71 RBI
7-Matt Kemp (LF) .304/.373/.454, 7 HR, 42 RBI
8-J.D. Drew (RF) .286/.363/.439, 13 HR, 84 RBI
9-Tadahito Iguchi (2B) .241/.347/.350, 7 HR, 47 RBI

Ocala Bench:
Rich Aurilia (IF) .246/.318/.289, 0 HR, 11 RBI
Josh Bard (C) .271/.358/.401, 4 HR, 45 RBI
Stephen Drew (SS) .213/.248/.370, 4 HR, 16 RBI
Damian Easley (IF) .260/.320/.440, 10 HR, 32 RBI
Josh Fields (3B/LF) .237/.306/.473, 18 HR, 61 RBI

Ocala Rotation:
RHP Jake Peavy (18-8, 3.58 ERA, 234 IP, 230 K)
RHP Roy Oswalt (16-6, 3.34 ERA, 224 IP, 158 K)
RHP Dustin McGowan (18-8, 3.67 ERA, 177 IP, 142 K)
LHP Joe Saunders (8-5, 5.50 ERA, 108 IP, 76 K)

Ocala Bullpen:
RHP Carlos Marmol (6-4, 2.01 ERA, 63 IP, 33 SV)
RHP Saul Rivera (6-3, 2.19 ERA, 90 IP, 6 SV)
LHP George Sherrill (4-1, 2.76 ERA, 42 IP, 5 SV)
RHP Scot Shields (9-3, 4.44 ERA, 75 IP, 2 SV)
RHP Dustin Moseley (5-2, 3.39 ERA, 90 IP, 1 SV)
RHP Brad Hennessey (1-0, 3.58 ERA, 60 IP, 1 SV)
RHP Andrew Brown (0-0, 5.15 ERA, 44 IP, 2 SV)



Primary Player Statistics For 2008 Fleetwood Walkers Totals After 162 Games



NAME BAVG GM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HB SH DP SB CS E
C.Ross .379 67 177 50 67 25 0 16 51 21 32 3 0 4 0 0 3
A.Cabrera .377 113 167 41 63 5 5 7 25 13 23 3 6 4 0 0 5
D.Wright .325 162 628 135 204 55 0 28 111 98 95 5 0 18 13 1 25
M.Cabrera .319 158 602 123 192 33 1 40 132 87 130 5 0 25 0 0 0
R.Gotay .313 69 195 32 61 18 0 1 20 13 43 1 0 6 4 0 3
H.Kendrick .312 110 340 51 106 29 4 7 49 17 52 6 1 17 3 0 10
C.Pena .305 162 508 123 155 36 4 41 127 108 140 16 0 7 1 0 6
J.Flores .302 78 189 27 57 8 1 11 41 8 45 2 1 2 0 0 3
J.Phelps .297 71 155 30 46 10 1 5 27 12 54 11 0 5 0 0 2
C.Iannetta .291 65 148 23 43 10 2 1 27 19 36 4 1 3 0 0 0
J.Bartlett .281 153 523 92 147 26 9 6 62 46 80 8 5 9 10 1 34
B.Bonds .278 129 385 92 107 13 1 36 100 103 63 10 0 22 0 1 3
N.Markakis .276 162 675 110 186 43 3 20 98 52 126 6 1 23 9 3 3
R.Doumit .271 79 247 44 67 17 2 13 52 37 57 4 0 8 1 1 7
C.Beltran .270 161 585 105 158 40 0 34 117 61 128 2 4 13 7 1 4
M.Cabrera .261 102 157 25 41 9 3 2 20 14 17 4 2 7 4 2 2
M.Giles ---- 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
R.Cedeno ---- 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
ALL PITCHERS ---- 162 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
----------------- ---- --- --- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- --- -- -- -- --- -- --
TEAM TOTALS .299 5681 1700 36 1059 1121 22 52 114
162 1103 377 268 709 90 173 10


NAME ERA W L PCT G GS CG SH SV IP H R ER HR BB SO
M.Parra 1.00 1 0 1.000 5 0 0 0 0 9.0 7 1 1 0 3 12
M.Corpas 1.55 6 2 .750 55 0 0 0 19 75.2 55 15 13 6 24 50
S.Downs 1.94 4 2 .667 53 0 0 0 3 55.2 31 16 12 1 20 59
H.Bell 2.26 13 6 .684 59 0 0 0 14 95.2 67 30 24 9 31 104
A.Burnett 3.12 15 5 .750 26 26 0 0 0 173.1 125 68 60 20 77 167
G.Maddux 3.47 23 3 .885 32 32 4 1 0 207.1 228 85 80 14 39 118
C.Billingsley 3.51 15 5 .750 31 25 0 0 0 154.0 128 65 60 17 60 144
R.Johnson 3.62 4 3 .571 10 10 0 0 0 59.2 51 26 24 7 14 74
D.Matsuzaka 3.83 17 8 .680 33 33 1 1 0 214.0 202 104 91 24 97 201
C.Janssen 4.20 0 0 ---- 44 0 0 0 6 70.2 75 38 33 11 24 31
K.Escobar 4.27 21 4 .840 32 32 2 0 0 204.2 214 104 97 14 65 161
Z.Greinke 5.79 3 2 .600 49 4 0 0 5 119.2 136 80 77 16 35 91
A.Guzman 6.10 0 0 ---- 9 0 0 0 0 10.1 16 7 7 0 0 5
ALL NON-PITCHERS ---- 0 0 ---- 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team 9 -1
----------------- ---- -- -- ----- --- -- -- -- -- ----- --- --- --- -- --- ---
TEAM TOTALS 3.59 40 162 7 47 1335 578 489
122 .753 162 11 1449.2 639 139 1217



Primary Player Statistics For 2008 Ocala Ocelots Totals After 162 Games



NAME BAVG GM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HB SH DP SB CS E
C.Hu .600 2 5 3 3 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
M.Kemp .326 99 304 57 99 8 5 7 42 23 64 0 0 3 5 0 5
D.Jeter .317 158 650 109 206 47 5 2 80 79 110 15 7 20 18 2 26
T.Helton .307 161 583 120 179 35 2 33 110 117 77 6 0 16 0 0 3
M.Lowell .303 157 611 93 185 37 2 24 104 59 89 4 0 22 0 0 7
R.Ibanez .301 142 472 74 142 27 5 27 92 44 77 3 0 21 0 0 4
J.Mauer .300 132 406 67 122 18 1 19 71 52 37 4 4 19 5 0 3
J.Drew .286 134 476 64 136 26 4 13 84 60 118 0 0 15 1 0 4
N.Schierholtz .283 13 46 9 13 3 1 0 3 6 11 0 0 0 1 0 0
G.Sizemore .273 161 664 139 181 36 4 32 110 107 167 14 0 13 28 9 2
J.Bard .271 96 314 34 85 27 1 4 45 43 46 0 0 15 0 0 3
D.Easley .260 69 200 33 52 4 1 10 32 19 41 2 0 3 0 1 1
R.Aurilia .246 50 142 20 35 6 0 0 11 11 27 4 0 4 0 0 2
T.Iguchi .241 141 460 70 111 25 2 7 47 72 74 3 5 9 7 0 3
J.Fields .237 90 300 57 71 15 1 18 61 30 95 1 0 5 0 0 5
S.Drew .213 47 127 16 27 6 1 4 16 6 21 0 1 3 0 0 0
B.Jones .167 3 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
E.Bonifacio .000 4 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
B.Moss .000 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
ALL PITCHERS ---- 162 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
----------------- ---- --- --- --- --- -- -- -- --- --- --- -- -- -- --- -- --
TEAM TOTALS .285 5780 1648 35 912 1060 17 65 81
162 967 320 202 734 57 169 12


NAME ERA W L PCT G GS CG SH SV IP H R ER HR BB SO
N.Blackburn 0.00 0 0 ---- 1 0 0 0 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 1
R.Rowland-Smith 1.31 0 0 ---- 12 0 0 0 2 20.2 9 4 3 0 7 23
C.Marmol 2.01 6 4 .600 50 0 0 0 33 62.2 45 16 14 1 37 75
S.Rivera 2.19 6 3 .667 55 0 0 0 6 90.1 87 26 22 2 40 67
G.Sherrill 2.76 4 1 .800 39 0 0 0 5 42.1 28 14 13 3 15 34
R.Oswalt 3.34 16 6 .727 35 35 0 0 0 223.2 238 90 83 22 54 158
D.Moseley 3.39 5 2 .714 39 5 0 0 1 90.1 91 43 34 6 13 55
B.Hennessey 3.58 1 0 1.000 36 0 0 0 1 60.1 54 25 24 7 12 27
J.Peavy 3.58 18 8 .692 35 35 2 0 0 233.2 208 96 93 20 81 230
R.Sanchez 3.60 1 0 1.000 4 0 0 0 1 5.0 3 2 2 1 1 3
D.McGowan 3.67 18 8 .692 29 29 0 0 0 176.2 152 77 72 13 68 142
S.Shields 4.44 9 3 .750 59 0 0 0 2 75.0 71 37 37 8 44 60
A.Eaton 5.08 14 8 .636 28 27 3 0 1 168.1 197 103 95 23 65 93
A.Brown 5.15 0 0 ---- 22 0 0 0 2 43.2 41 25 25 5 10 37
J.Saunders 5.50 8 5 .615 18 18 0 0 0 108.0 137 72 66 19 36 76
M.Pelfrey 5.95 2 6 .250 13 13 1 0 0 75.2 85 56 50 11 39 49
ALL NON-PITCHERS ---- 0 0 ---- 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Team 7 -2
----------------- ---- -- -- ----- --- -- -- -- -- ----- --- --- --- -- --- ---
TEAM TOTALS 3.84 54 162 6 54 1446 631 522
108 .667 162 7 1477.1 686 141 1130

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