April 3, 2006: 162-0?

Having won my first two games, one has to wonder...might I go 162-0? Something tells me the odds are against it. Still, let's pull out the old abacus and check, shall we?!

For the sake of argument, let us assume my 2006 team has a "true" potential of about 95-100 wins this season. (Since I have to play Metropolis seven times, that might be optimistic. But a man can dream.) If so, my winning percentage would be about .600 or so.

If I owned a magic (or loaded) coin that would somehow land "heads up" 60% of the time, my odds of flipping 162 consecutive "heads" (.600 to the 162nd power...or .600^162) would be:

0.000000000000000000000000000000000001149

Don't worry...put into percentage terms, things don't look quit so bleak:

0.0000000000000000000000000000000001149%

See..that's better! But wait...I already have two wins! That means I only need 160 more. So let's change that pesky "162" exponent to a more friendly "160" and see how my odds improve!

0.000000000000000000000000000000000003193 or
0.0000000000000000000000000000000003193%

Wow. That's almost 3 times as easy! Let's keep hope alive, brothers and sisters.

Postscript:
I just completed Game 3. Tinley pounded A.J. Burnett for 3 home runs, and Juan Dominguez for 1 more. Oh, and Derrek Lee is now 0-12 on the season. The odds of that, you ask?

(1-0.335)^12 = 0.0075 = 0.75%

Final score: Tinley 10, Fleetwood 7. The dream is over.

Tomorrow's matchup: Tinley (Sean Douglass) at Fleetwood (Esteban Loaiza).

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BOXSCORE: 2006 Tinley Redbirds At 2006 Fleetwood Walkers             4/3/2006
Gm 3: Tinley slugs its way to victory, scoring 10 runs and hitting 4 homers.
 
  Redbirds           AB  R  H RBI AVG     Walkers            AB  R  H RBI AVG
  R.Durham 2B         5  2  1  0 .182     M.Giles 2B          5  0  2  1 .375  
  R.Adams SS          5  0  1  1 .308     D.Wright 3B         4  1  1  1 .300  
  R.Ibanez RF         4  1  1  2 .083     D.Lee 1B            5  0  0  0 .000  
  R.Ledee CF          3  0  0  0 .200     M.Cabrera LF        5  1  2  0 .333  
  J.Snow 1B           4  1  1  2 .250     J.Dye RF            3  1  1  0 .333  
  T.Graffanino DH     4  2  2  1 .375   A-D.Dejesus PH        1  0  0  0 .000  
  G.Anderson LF       4  2  2  2 .250     B.Crosby SS         3  1  0  0 .250  
  R.Barajas C         4  1  1  2 .125     J.Phelps DH         3  1  3  2 .800  
  M.Lowell 3B         4  1  2  0 .429     R.Castro C          4  1  1  2 .143  
                                          L.Matos CF          4  1  1  0 .286  
                     -- -- -- ---                            -- -- -- ---      
         Totals      37 10 11 10                 Totals      37  7 11  6
 
A-Pinch Hit For Dye In 9th Inning
 
Redbirds........ 1 4 0  0 3 0  0 2 0  - 10 11  0
Walkers......... 0 4 0  2 0 0  0 0 1  -  7 11  1
 
Redbirds (1-2)           IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA  SCORESHEET
J.Seo WIN(1-0)            8 2/3  11   7   7   3   7   1   7.27  A1 E4
D.Cortes SAVE(1st)        0 1/3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0.00  E5
Totals                    9      11   7   7   3   7   1
 
Walkers (2-1)            IP       H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR    ERA  SCORESHEET
A.Burnett LOSS(0-1)       6       9   8   7   2   2   3  10.50  A1 D1
J.Dominguez               3       2   2   2   0   3   1   6.00  D2
Totals                    9      11  10   9   2   5   4
 
ATTENDANCE- 35,346 DATE- Thursday, April 3rd 2006 TIME- Night WEATHER- Good
T- 3:28
LEFT ON BASE- Redbirds: 2  Walkers: 7
DOUBLE PLAYS- Redbirds: 0  Walkers: 1
ERRORS- D.Wright
DOUBLES- M.Cabrera-2(2nd), J.Dye(1st), L.Matos(1st)
HOME RUNS- J.Snow(1st), T.Graffanino(1st), G.Anderson(1st), R.Barajas(1st),
           R.Castro(1st)
STOLEN BASES- R.Adams(2nd), T.Graffanino(1st)
CAUGHT STEALING- M.Lowell
WALKS- R.Ibanez, R.Ledee, D.Wright, B.Crosby, J.Phelps
HIT BY PITCH- J.Dye
STRIKE OUTS- R.Durham-3, R.Ledee, M.Lowell, D.Lee, M.Cabrera, J.Dye-2, R.Castro,
             L.Matos-2
WILD PITCHES- J.Seo, D.Cortes